NEFA DISCussion

That last thread got me thinking this might be a good idea. People post interesting hands and see what Nefa Land thinks of your game If it's a stupid idea feel free to post that too.

This is from my last trip to the Woods. The game is $5-$10 No Limit Holdem. UTG(the person left of the button and first to act preflop) makes a standard raise to $40 and gets three callers to me in the Big Blind. I look down and see AsAd , of course I don't want to have AA in a multiway pot so I raise to $250. UTG stares at me for a little while and calls as does one other, 3 players to the flop $835 in the pot I have $1375 left and they both have me covered.

The flop is 8s 6s 2s, a relatively good flop for me. I am first to act and bet $450, the kid on my left stares at me again looks down at his cards and folds and the other player in the hand is an older guy who plays there every day and loves to gamble goes all in, now the pot is huge (2200+) and it's 925 to me. Getting almost 2.5:1 odds, whats your play and what do you think he has??

Wow Todd ... now that's quite a scenario you've laid out there. I'm going to have to say that the guy has pocket 8's ... although I'm not sure how he could hang with the $250 raise unless he's in position (I guess he could also have a large pair like you KK, QQ - but I think not). It doesn't seem to me that he would call that raise with suited spade connectors or anything like that ... highly unlikely unless he thinks like Nagreanu, Matusow, or Farha

Price is right I think ... you went all in right?

I think...because you have the A spade, it is a given to follow him all in to the pot. Likely you are up against a high pair, or a pair of spades at worst. I take the chance there and call the all-in. Hope for the fourth spade to make the flush, and hope the board does not pair.

Remeber the guy that called your 200.00 dollare raise with K,K when he had 4, 5 suited Rob? He hit two pair on the flop, and it cost you big. People play dumb.

Mike ... just when I was getting over that you had to bring it up again ... I'm officially on tilt again

You raise pre flop for = to all the money in the pot. You have clearly represented a big overpair since you are not messing around pre. I can see two possibilities for him. He's got to put you on AA, KK or AK since you have reraised all the pre flop callers of the original raise.

Since you are saying he is a known gambler (I don't know if he has the reputation of being able to get off a big hand), he probably plays a higher than "tight" percentage of hands. He's a gambler and you have to remember he is now going heads up against you, he has $40 in already (not much I know) but for another $210 there is $625 (??) already in the pot,..and he has two cards of which you don't have any of his cards.

I truly believe he has 86s because that is a power/scared bet and he doesn't want to see another card with the 3 spades and your over pair could draw out a higher 2 pair even though his 86 has 2 of the cards on the board currently covered.. So I think you are behind but not by much.

Sounds crazy I know, but that's my guess

Gary. you got it. Me and Todd were talking about this hand this morning.

Tell me Todd hit the flush??

It's so easy to armchair quarterback!!

Yes that is correct, 86, and a very impressive read Gary, except it was offsuit. So even though he has 2 pair and I just have one, I was still the favorite to win the hand. Granted only a .91% favorite, but a favorite nontheless. I thought he had a hand like TT JJ QQ with a spade and was likely drawing to one out so I instacalled. Hit a spade on the turn, and a dreadful 6 river. Still ended up winning money on the session, but that one definitely hurt. I'm actually off to Foxwoods now, so hopefully I'll have a couple more to post that I come out on top.

-Todd

.25/.50 NL cash game 6 man.

Me on SB ($50.00) and all folds to me and BB ($32.00).
I have Ah Jd and smooth call. BB raises to $1.50.
I reraise to $3.50, BB calls. Flop 10-3-j(all spades). I bet $7 into $8 pot. BB goes all in, What does he have and what do I do?

opposing player has been relatively loose

He has 10, J spades, and you folded.
Or he has pocket rags and you called his bluff to take him out.

He has AK with the Ace of spades and you call and he hits one of his 16 outs.

He has Qs-10c and he hits a spade on riv.

So my questions are

How many people raise there with Q-10?
How many people then call the reraise with Q-10
How many people go all in with 2nd pr and non nut flush draw?

I would probably raise on the BB (as he did) just to make the SB (you) pay to see the flop. With Q-10 he has two relatively high cards against one opponent. Why not raise and see if you'll fold.

Once you as the SB re-raised, stating that you have some kind of a hand, he might put you on a small pair, suited connectors, Ace-x. Heads up, you could have pretty much any holding. And being the loose player he is, he probbaly figured, let me see the flop, if I hit it hard, sweet, if not, I'll get out. Plus he figures, if the flop is scary, maybe he can get you to fold if you show weakness. Lastly, I feel that you priced him into a call based on his reputation. Maybe re-raising to $5 would have gotten him to fold pre-flop.

After the flop comes, the story definitely changes. You bet strongly with top pair. A clear show of strength. However, if you look at his draws, he is clearly making a "decent" semi-bluff, figuring that maybe you had A-K and obviously missed. He has nine outs to make his flush, plus three queens, and maybe the two tens. That's a total of 14 outs. Using the Rule of 4 with two cards to come (14 outs * 4) = a 56% of hitting a card that helps him. Even if you subtract the tens, he's still 48% to hit. Which equals coin flip.

So he semi-bluffs at hit, grossly over-betting the pot to try and take it down right there. From my perspective, you only have top pair, with no "real" draws, except some runner-runner possibilities. Plus he's showing some real aggression with his re-raise.

It's actually a really great move on his part. He's using his loose reputation to put you to a big test when he knows he probably has the better draw (or at least one that gives him 50-50). And he knows that you know that he could be playing anything (either a made hand or a pure bluff). So why did you make the call? What was your read?

I would probably raise on the BB (as he did) just to make the SB (you) pay to see the flop. With Q-10 he has two relatively high cards against one opponent. Why not raise and see if you'll fold.

Once you as the SB re-raised, stating that you have some kind of a hand, he might put you on a small pair, suited connectors, Ace-x. Heads up, you could have pretty much any holding. And being the loose player he is, he probbaly figured, let me see the flop, if I hit it hard, sweet, if not, I'll get out. Plus he figures, if the flop is scary, maybe he can get you to fold if you show weakness. Lastly, I feel that you priced him into a call based on his reputation. Maybe re-raising to $5 would have gotten him to fold pre-flop.

After the flop comes, the story definitely changes. You bet strongly with top pair. A clear show of strength. However, if you look at his draws, he is clearly making a "decent" semi-bluff, figuring that maybe you had A-K and obviously missed. He has nine outs to make his flush, plus three queens, and maybe the two tens. That's a total of 14 outs. Using the Rule of 4 with two cards to come (14 outs * 4) = a 56% of hitting a card that helps him. Even if you subtract the tens, he's still 48% to hit. Which equals coin flip.

So he semi-bluffs at hit, grossly over-betting the pot to try and take it down right there. From my perspective, you only have top pair, with no "real" draws, except some runner-runner possibilities. Plus he's showing some real aggression with his re-raise.

It's actually a really solid move on his part. He's using his loose reputation to put you to a big test when he knows he probably has the better draw (or at least one that gives him 50-50). And he knows that you know that he could be playing anything (either a made hand or a pure bluff).

The only negative to his play, as you stated, is that he doesn't have the nut flush draw. If he puts you on A-K (either both or/one a spade) than he's taking a tremendous risk. However, if he puts you on a semi-bluff of sorts (like a suited connector), then he might think he has the best of it. To our perspective, a bet of $20 from him might be more appropriate - reraise for information.

If you come back over the top, he'll probably call anyway. So why not go all-in right away and put you to the test. Maybe you'll fold and he'll take it down. Otherwise if you call, he's still got his draws (if his read is correct).

If he's wrong, and you do have A-K, then he's only got 20% to win (the remaining queens and tens). However, based on your pre-flop betting (not super aggressive), I don't think he'd put you on A-K. Going back to the above pre-flop discussion, had you re-raised him to $5, you would have defined your hand, and if he called, he would have defined his as well.

As for the turn and the river - well he had some outs didn't he?

So why did you make the call? What was your read?

Ignore the first one please - sorry about the double huge post - I was editing it and it got posted twice.

I had him dead on with mid pair and no A (10-J or 9-10 were my guesses)since he made no re-reaise. I was a little surprised to see that he did have a flush draw.

FYI....http://www.worldpokertour.com/tournament/?x=updatesnews

final table is wednesday at 5:00, 1st come/1st served, could be fun to watch.

Our friend that we play with sometimes is currently sitting in 2nd place

Robert "Thunder" Kairnes,...he had to call in sick to work today cause he is out of vacation time.

Go THUNDER,...kick their ASS!!!

Follow it here: http://www.worldpokertour.com/tournament/?x=updates

If he makes the final table ... would he be willing to wear a robscustompokertables.com t-shirt?

He could even keep the shirt if he'd like - I'm sure it's much more than FullTilt could offer

Maybe if you build him a table Rob. Come to think of it...i will wear a "Rob's custom" shirt to tourneys for a table.
So good to see thunder playing well. Fun to think I played against him a couple times. Hope he wins it all!

I would raise the BB with QT if it was folded to me and the SB just limped, although I would have folded to your re-raise preflop. As for the flop, I think it's pretty standard. He has a big hand and it turned out he was actually ahead, even if you showed him AA with no spade it would still be the correct play to get it all in there for the both of you.

Kairnes Eliminated in 13th Place
Tuesday, April 3, 2007 12:39 PM PDT



Frankie Flowers raises to T40,000 from the cut off. Bob Kairnes says “I call; I’m all in”, but since he said “I call” first he can not bet the T4,000 he has left. Kairnes says I bet in the smoke” and puts his T4,000 in the pot before the flop. Flowers says “I call in the smoke.”

Flowers shows Ad8h while cards flips over A-K.

The flop comes AcQh5h7h9h giving Flowers runner-runner heart flush and the pot. Kairnes makes his exit in 13th place and will receive $48,733.

Oh man what a sick way to go out. Still obv. a nice cash, but brutal exit.

i thought you should always fold on the dead man's hand?

Last trip to Foxwoods, blinds $2-$5: It's folded to me in Middle Postion and I raise to 20 with 7d8d everyone folds to the tight Big Blind who minraises to 40. I call in position and we see a flop of Ad Kd Td. BB leads out for 50 and I just call. The turn is Jd, which isn't great card for me, but not too bad either. He checks and I bet $125, leaving me with roughly $400 behind. He thinks for a while and calls. River is a 4s and he bets out $125, what's your move and what does he hold?

Yuk,..If I'm you I feel like I've worked myself into quite a pickle here!!

I think he is searching for you to tell him the whole way that you have him beat.

I just call cause he has QQ, and I can't be certain if one of them is the diamond. But I think he is as scared of the diamonds as you are, so I lean towards no

I'm assuming him to be real tight since you mentioned it. I can easily see a tight player only one raiseing with QQ in the BB to not bring make you too scared but still make a statement.

only three cards out there to beat you.... but him being a known tight player the question is does he have the 9/J/Q to take you, or is he bluffing the flush but still has a strong hand with a lady?

since he checked it to you when the Jd came out but still matched your bet... my guess is he's riding the 9d and is just as scared as you are

He did infact have pocket 9's with the 9d. I called his river bet seeing as I had the third nuts and didn't think he would re-raise me preflop with a 9, so the only hand I would lose to is a royal flush. I'm willing to pay $125 to see a royal. Looking back on the hand I see that I tried to play it too fancy, I should have just raised him on the flop and took it down there, but I'm still not sure what the long run best play is.